In historic last year, Edgar is 24 for 24 so far.

Edgar

Edgar Martinez is in his last year of eligibility for Hall of Fame voting.  Last year, year nine, Edgar finished with 70.4% of the votes on the Baseball writers’ ballots, about twenty votes short of selection. He has received all the public votes tendered so far, including six he didn’t get last year.

As I said, there is a sense of urgency for the Mariners designated hitter with the sweet swing.  If he dosesn’t receive at least 75% of the vote, he’s out and would have to be chosen by one of veteran committees.  No sure thing there.

Competing with Edgar for votes are a couple of likely new nominees and a lot of hangers on.  Closer sans peur Mariano Rivera joins Edgar on the ballot.  You can punch his ticket to Cooperstown now.  Right handed starter Roy Halladay who dominated the big league for a decade, and was tragically killed in a plane crash a couple years ago begins his first year on the ballot.  I don’t know if he’ll make it this year, but it will be interesting to see how close Doc gets to election. Todd Helton, the Rockies first baseman is on this ballot.  He has great numbers, but fights the perception that Coors Field simply inflates statistics.

It’s very early in the public vote.  Those must be in by December 31st and they are trickling in to Ryan Thibodaux’s website.  24 votes counted, that’s about 5.8% of known ballots.  So far Edgar has had a really good series 24 for 24.   Rivera also has 100 percent.  Remaining nominees over 50% are:

Roy Halladay        87.5%

Mike Mussina       79.2%

Roger Clemens      75%

Barry Bonds          70.8 %

Curt Shilling          70.8 %

Larry Walker         58.3 %

Omar Vizquel        54.2 %

I’ve received my IBWAA ballot, and have pretty well marked up what I’m going to do. I haven’t sent it in yet.  I had no trouble choosing my votes.  Some may surprise you, but some not. Remember the internet writers have created a bit of an alternative universe in which Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Barry Bonds and Mike Mussina are already in, and Barry Larkin is still outside pounding on the door. Here are my votes for this year:

Lance Berkman–Berkman was not a good defender, but offensively he was great for a long time. His numbers remind me of-well-Edgar Martinez. I don’t know if Berkman can muster the pr machine to get him over the top, but I don’t want him to drop off the ballot.  Hopefully he hangs in there and conversation can continue.

Roy Halladay-Doc was great on the Blue Jays and the Phillies. He doesn’t have Tom Glavine’s counting numbers, but he was still 203-105, won a couple of Cy Youngs and placed in the top five four other times.  He led the league in innings pitched four times and complete games nine times.  This at a time when those accomplishments were becoming rarer and rarer. He was an iron man.  Threw a no-hitter in the playoffs.  You had me at hello.

Todd Helton-Helton is one of those guys I dismissed as a Coors Field product when I saw his name headed for the ballot.  But after reading Jay Jaffe’s Fan Graphs article, I think Helton deserves my vote if for no other reason than continuing a conversation about his career and how it fits in the context of the Hall of Fame.  We’ve got ten years to figure it out.

Fred McGriff–It took me some time to jump on the Crime Dog Bandwagon, and I’m really sorry for that.  McGriff should be in the Hall.  He’s seven home runs from 500, and a golden ticket to Cooperstown.  He was a clean player in the steroids era.  He missed time due to the 94-95 strike.  He was a consistent hitter and great teammate.  It’s his last year, and the chances slim, but my fingers are crossed.

Mariano Rivera-Mo was the gold standard for pitchers.  Strike out the tough hitters, Rivera did that. Pitch multiple innings, he did that too.  Longevity, Rivera was around a long time, and he leads baseball with career games finished with 952, and career saves with 652.  And he’s a terrific, humble person which does it for me every time.  Look I know there are voters who won’t cast a yes for closers, but this guy is the real deal. And I’m a lifelong Yankee hater.

Scott Rolen-Rolen was a wonderful combination of brilliant defense and good offense who played for the Phillies, Cardinals and Reds. He won eight gold gloves.  He finished with a career slash of .281/.364/.490.  It’s very good, but not quite great. He was tough as nails, played hard, played hurt, and he’s right on the edge. Jay Jaffe says this about Rolen’s candidacy.

Curt Schilling-Curt Schilling and I have a lot in common.  We both have an affinity for board games, and we kind of live for baseball. Okay, I guess the common part ends there.  He’s a loudmouthed conservative buffoon who has taken itchy Twitter-finger lessons from Donald Trump and he has alienated a great deal of the baseball community. But he belongs in the Hall of Fame. My nose is held.  My ballot is marked.

Omar Vizquel-Little O’s candidacy is aided by the fact that he had a great defensive reputation (11 Gold Gloves,) got close to 3,000 hits due to a long career, and played on some pretty good teams.  He began life as a Seattle Mariner, which always goes a long way with me.  But he stuck around a long time because he was a valuable teammate and could make the plays in the field.  Is that good enough to get him in the Hall of Fame?  Well, we’ll see.  He’s got my vote.

Larry Walker-Walker was one of those great players who left the Expos and landed elsewhere-think Tim Raines, Gary Carter, Vladimir Guerrero.  Hey those guys are in the Hall of Fame!.  Unfortunately Walker ended up in Colorado.  One strike.  He also had a ton of injuries and had difficulty staying on the field. Two strikes. Walker was a terrific player who simply lacks the longevity to compile the counting numbers. But he won an MVP in 1997, has seven Gold Gloves.  The voters have rallied to Walker the last couple of years, but he’s in his ninth year on the ballot.  If he can make an Edgarish jump this year, he might have a shot.

 

 

 

 

 

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Reimagining the 2019 Mariners as a dumptser fire.

Dumpster Fire

Started writing this post last week as word was leaking out about Mets trade.  I rewrote this several times because as the deal was being finalized Trader Jerry made two more deals.

Do you remember when the season ended and Dipoto suggested  the team might need to take a “step back” in 2019 before returning to contention in 2020 or 2021. Later he suggested the M’s would “re-imagine” their roster.

Well, three trades later it’s been re-imagined and it looks a bit like a dystopian nightmare.

Gone:

Mike Zunino C

Robinson Cano 2b

Jean Segura SS

Guillermo Heredia OF

Nelson Cruz  DH (contract expired)

Chris Herrman (waived)

James Paxton  SP

Nick Vincent RP (waived)

Edwin Diaz RP

Alex Colome RP

Juan Nicasio RP

James Pazos RP

Casey Lawrence RP-Released to Nippon Professional Baseball

Michael Plassmeyer SP (NW League Low A)

Acquired:

Omar Narvaez  C

Carlos Santana  1B/DH

J.P. Crawford  SS

Jay Bruce  OF/DH

Mallex Smith  OF

Jake Fraley Of   (High A Charlotte)

Dylan Moore  UT (AAA-free agent signing)

Ruben Alaniz  RP  (AAA-free agent signing)

Justus Sheffield SP/RP  (AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre)

Erik Swanson SP (AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre)

Dom Thompson-Williams OF  (High A Tampa)

Ricardo Sanchez SP  (AA Mississippi) acquired from Atlanta for cash

Jarred Kelenic OF (Rookie League Kingsport)

Justin Dunn SP (AA Binghamton)

Gerson Bautista RP

You can see the Mariners traded away or parted with huge chunks of their major league roster and got back-well a lot fewer major league players.  They got younger.  They are cheaper.  They are  more flexible.  They are years away from the majors.

Sometimes words have meaning, but perhaps a lot different meaning when they come from the mouths of major league general managers.  To me, I thought stepping back meant trading some key Mariners pieces to go from 89 wins to around .500, or maybe a little less.  I was fine with that.

If Dipoto had simply been frank and said, “look we need to tear this down and start over,” I would have been fine with that too.  The M’s have tried to paper over their weaknesses with ill-advised trades and free agent signings since 2003. The courage to be candid might have tempered my expectations a bit.  Bill Bavasi, Jack Zdurencik and Dipoto all showed the unique ability to paint a real world a bit different from their promises.

With four pretty substantial trades under their belt, however, it is unclear if the Trading Man is done.  Is Seager the next to go?  Will Dipoto try to trade Jay Bruce or Carlos Santana? Is Malex Smith now trade-able? Does Dee Gordon go, or will he play second base?   What roles can we expect for Ryon Healy and Daniel Vogelbach? Will Jerry now trade the “untouchables” Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales?  Why are they untouchable if Edwin Diaz was not? The M’s no longer have a back end of the bullpen. What does Jerry expect to do about this?

Any way you look at it this is likely to be a very different world for Mariners fans in 2019.  I’m sure that Sheffield and Swanson will see some time in the majors.  Bautista will likely make an appearance in the bullpen.  We’ll see Richards at shortstop by June (and no idea who would take his place before that.) Kiss the days of Robbie and Boomstick good bye.  This team may get on base a bit more (a good thing) but it’s hard to see how a team that struggled to score last year, scores as much in 2019.  The M’s will got into Spring Training with a rotation that is likely quite unsettled. And who closes out games? Auditions in the Center Field Market. Yikes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Times When It’s Hard to be a Mariners Fan

 

Jerry DiPoto

This post should be about the Zunino/Heredia for Mallex Smith trade.  Or perhaps about the impending, gonna happen any minute, James Paxton blockbuster. But it’s not.

I’ve had about 24 hours to digest the news that Dr. Lorena Martin, the M’s highly touted Director of High Performance was quietly relieved of her duties after the season’s end.  Yesterday she responded to her firing with accusations on social media the Mariners behaved in a racist fashion, She stated that General Manager Jerry Dipoto, Director of Player Development Andy McKay, and Manager Scott Servais called “latinos dumb, lazy and stupid, especially the Dominicans.” She also suggested the Mariners fired Latino trainers for “trying to do the right thing.”

Predictably, the Mariners have denied any of this.  The team denies that “any member of our management or coaching staff made racist remarks regarding any of our players or staff” and says it has “not terminated (or threatened to terminate) any trainers during the off-season.”

We know the accusations.  We know the defensive crouch the team has taken.  That’s all we know about this incident.  Today Major League Baseball announced they’d begin an investigation.  Until Martin produces evidence she says she has, or until the team can produce on the record evidence it says it has, or until MLB produces a report based on evidence it gathers, the public has nothing.

Except i’s opinions.  From Ken Rosenthal, to Lookout Landing to the comment section of every web-story about this incident, everybody is ready to express their view sans facts.

There is no way the M’s can emerge from this unsullied.  Even if Martin is found to be entirely unbelievable and simply seeking revenge for being fired for cause, the M’s are being slammed by Rosenthal for not doing due diligence for the hire, while seeking the notoriety of hiring an academic, Latina, outsider to a an important insider position.

Of course, if her accusations are found to be true, the idea of tearing the team down to the studs will take on new meaning as everyone from team president Kevin Mather on down will have to go.

If the truth is somewhat more gray, that Martin was not able to walk in job-ready and needed support the team didn’t wish to supply, or was unwilling to follow the recipe for high performance she was suggesting, it’s the M’s who look like eternally incompetent dopes for hiring someone unready, or really not being about this whole new health angle.

As a fan, it’s hard to feel very good about all this. Not only has the home team not made it to the playoffs since I was young, slim and without gray hair, but they’ve looked made decades of bad trades, hampered themselves with ridiculously bad contracts, and failed to develop an incredibly number of high but poorly chosen draft choices. Dipoto is simply the latest of Mariner GM’s to promise to win a championship, but even he is no longer content to “stick with the core” and if he isn’t going to trade away everybody, he’s at least willing to “step back” in an effort to become more competitive.

Somehow, being competitive feels much farther away today than it did at the end of the season.  For this Mariners fan, it feels like I can’t go outdoors without stepping in dog shit.

For those, like me, who support the home town team, my counsel is patience.  We know little.  This feels like calling for impeachment without knowing what’s in the Mueller probe.  It’s been 24 hours and no new facts have surfaced, but the sports news cycle, like the political news, has to have something to sell. The proof will be in the findings.  That said, I’d be prepared for the worst.

Meanwhile the Mariners are in the process of hiring two new coaches, and I suspect that in the not too distant future, life will go on as the M’s deal their ace, and hopefully don’t fumble the riches in return. But who knows what this organization will look like by the time Spring Training begins.

It’s Been a Long Time

2018

Since June actually.

I could make all kinds of excuses, but honestly the 2018 Mariners were just a difficult team to write about after about July 5th.  All the things that went well in April, May and June-decent pitching, timely hitting and a different hero every night, dissolved into ineptitude, lassitude and tiresome losing baseball. 89 wins was a big improvement over 2017, but it was truly the most enervating 89 win season in history.

Even the playoffs didn’t really go my way.  I rooted for the underdog A’s, clobbered by the hated Yankees.  Then the Astros and Brewers, but all to no avail.  A World Series featuring the Red Sox and the Dodgers?  Really?  Who do you root for in that?  A meteor?  A plane crash?  The return of the bubonic plague?

But when it was all over, I had to ask what happened to the game I loved?  More strikeouts than hits.  Waiting around for a home run to win a game?  This is analytics run amuck to ruin a game that used to be a chess match of skill versus skill.  Now it’s simply a bet, a die roll and hoping for the best.  This is the worst of 60’s baseball without the embarrassment for striking out. High 90’s heat versus launch angle plus exit velocity may be 2018’s idea of a good time.  But if Rob Manfred really wants to know why people aren’t watching–this might be it.

Even so,  2019 is just around the corner. There will be trades and Hall of Fame voting to talk about. Spring Training isn’t all that far away.

The Mariners at 72: Winning isn’t lucky

Walk off

Your Seattle Mariners are 46-26.  That’s twenty games over .500, and about 16 more games over the break even point than I believed they’d be with my most optimistic predictions.

The M’s are a puzzle to many observers, especially to those who know nothing more about the team than what they see in the box scores and can plug into sabrmetric measures. How does a team with a +22 run differential hold the fourth best record in the American League?  Their loss on Thursday night cost them their narrow lead over the Astros, who are finally starting to heat up all their thrusters.  But the M’s are still  7-3 over their last ten games, losing a game Rays and  a pair in a series split with the Red Sox.  With the next six games all against the Red Sox and Yankees, there’s still room for a mid-June stumble against the best teams in the east.

But what if they don’t.  There are a few different scenarios I’m thinking of for the Tour de Nasty.  The M’s could have a super trip (for me, that’s anything above .500).  Let’s not be greedy, say 4-2. They arrive in Baltimore with a run differential of +30. Great stuff right?  Still close games in line with their performance, but they bump their record to 23 games over .500 against the best teams in baseball based on winning percentage. Scenario two shows the M’s arriving in the home of the Star Spangled Banner at an even 4-4.  Their run differential stays about the same give or take a few. The nightmare scenario, in my view, is the M’s melt down entirely and they go 2-6 ish.  Or the M’s manage to break even, winning a few in tight, Mariners one-run fashion, but get blown out in two or three games and return with a run differential below +15.

They’re still around 20 games over .500, still trailing the Astros, but they’ve gone toe to toe with the Bosox and Yankees and have only three games left with those bad boys in September.

Will the baseball press continue to claim it’s luck?  Cliff Corcoran of the Athletic said the M’s run of one-run wins is not sustainable, that they are basically “coin flips.” though I suspect if you asked Ben Gamel, Mike Zunino and Denard Span about their effort to claw back from last night’s 6-3 deficit and win the game late 7-6, they’d find much relationship to tossing quarters.

Jeff Sullivan on Fangraphs, a former writer for USS Mariner and Lookout Landing, well acquainted with and exhausted by the Mariners’ losing ways’ acknowledges the M’s clutch pitching and offensive performances, calls them an “adequate team,” but labels their performance to date, a mirage.

Ben Lindbergh, writing for The Ringer, calls the M’s a fluke, and also attributing their winning ways to luck.  He cites their modest position for pitching, 7th in park adjusted FIP, 8th in non-pitcher wRC+, and 16th in park-adjusted defensive efficiency.  However Lindbergh also connects the Mariners’ flukiness with their current position with their years of absence from playoff baseball.  Therefore, if they fluke their way into the playoffs, well, they deserved it, they’ve endured so much.  Gee, thanks I think.

If you’re reading this, hey I’m just a fan like you.  Probably, like you Mariners fan, I’m outraged when I read that my team’s daily travails to win a game by one run is meaningless, it’s on the same level as betting red on the roulette wheel.  I say that because I watch most games on television and they struggle to score, get a lead and keep it.  Why?  Because baseball is a hard game, dammit. The M’s haven’t had many blowouts this season, have BEEN blown out a few times and that accounts for their tiny run differential.

I get cranky when I hear comments that the M’s success this year is simply lucky, they are winning on a coin flip, they can’t sustain this success.  I have read not one critique that can explain their one run win success.   There isn’t a sufficient objective mathematically-driven tool that explains it, so the only explanation must be luck, coin flips and flukes. Writers soaked in sabermetrics can’t explain it so it must be magic.  Their certain downfall has biblical certainty.  Their success wasn’t predicted by projection tools at the beginning of the season, therefore it can’t be real, it doesn’t fit the narrative, it must be fake, flukey or whatever lucky is.

This is who we are.  We just took two from your beloved Red Sox.   .  The Mariners are 23-10 in one run games.  But they’re also 9-8 in blowouts.  6-0 in extra inning games.  This is not luck.  This is who the Mariners are.  They are guts.  They have chemistry.  They know how to win, perhaps without the beatdown offense and flash of New York, Boston, and Houston.  But ask the Red Sox if the M’s are lucky.  They got knocked out of first place in the east on Saturday.  Okay, it was just for a day but we’ll take it.

Go M’s

 

 

Ratings Monday: What the Writers Have Wrong

Haniger catch
Mitch Haniger goes into the stands to catch this foul fly in the Mariners 7-2 win over Detroit on Saturday.

Your Seattle Mariners, on the strength of two breathtaking wins this weekend and three in a row over the Tigers are in sole possession of the second  wild card spot and second place in the AL west.  They have 1.5 game lead over the Angels.  At 27-19 they have the fourth best record in the American League and the seventh best record in major league baseball.

Monday is the day ESPN comes out with their power rankings. So does the Athletic.  They both have your Seattle Mariners ranked at a solid 14.  That’s 14 behind those same Angels.  That’s number 14 behind the Cleveland Indians they left a smoking wreck a few weeks ago. Behind the slow starting Nationals and Cubs, behind the Pirates and Cardinals with worse records, and behind the Arizona Diamondbacks that just lost nine of ten.

Just to be clear, all the writers don’t feel the same.  CBS Sports have the M’s at 8, up seven spots from last week. Bleacher Report, has the Mariners at nine, climbing five from last week.  USA Today has the M’s at 11, less middle of the pack but still well behind the ridiculous Angels at 8.

The two reasons given for the soft appreciation for what the M’s have accomplished to date are: 1) Robinson Cano’s suspension 2) a soft schedule.

Let’s deal with number two.  Nobody gets to determine their schedule, Major League Baseball does that.  The M’s haven’t played the Yankees or Red Sox, the bullies of the American League.  They’ve struggled against the Astros and Angels. But just to be clear, they’ve beaten everybody else. Though the M’s lost the series in Detroit, their three of four wins over the Tiggers at Safeco, gave them a 4-3 season series win. They may have difficult days ahead in June when the schedule is very tough, but we don’t know that yet. Penalizing a team for games they haven’t played seem ridiculous.  What is this, the college football power rankings?

Segura walks off
Guillermo Heredia (#5) greets Jean Segura after his walk-off single in Sunday’s 3-2 extra-inning win.

The factor everyone drew attention to is Cano’s suspension.  It is shocking.  It is disappointing, and yes it will have an impact on the team.  But it’s impossible to look at what this team has accomplished and not realize they aren’t letting this stop them.  If you are an M’s fan and missed the games this weekend, you missed Jean Segura, Dee Gordon, Mitch Haniger, Guillermo Heredia,  Mike Zunino and James Paxton asserting themselves as the new leaders of this team.  You missed the heartwarming debut performance of Ryan Cook as a new bridge to Edwin Diaz who laid the Tigers low like a scythe through wheat. This Mariners group has more team spirit, they play for each other more than any I can remember for a long time. Will this team miss Robinson Cano? Absolutely, but these guys can play.

I can’t foresee the future.  The M’s may go 2-26 in June (but I doubt it because they play the Orioles and Royals as well as all the tough guys.) But they haven’t played them yet, and it seems unfair to dismiss them when nobody expected them to be here, heading into Memorial Day with the wind at their backs.

Fixing what’s broke: Mariners Beat Tigers 5-4

Haniger beats Tigers

Wake up Mariners fans, and look at the standing in your morning paper, or on ESPN MLB as I’m doing, and you will find your Seattle Mariners in second place in AL West.  The also hold on to that all important second AL Wild Card spot.  Given the travails of the last week, it seems miraculous.

But as many travails as the Mariners are having, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are having even more. They’ve won four of their last eleven games, and have suffered a raft of pitching injuries.  The Angels bitten by the injury bug include starter Matt Shoemaker  on the DL, and starter J.C. Ramirez and closer Kenyan Middleton have had or are having Tommy John surgery.   This may be the daylight the M’s need to surge past the Halos.

Felix Hernandez started Friday night’s game against the Tigers at Safeco Field.  The Tiggers ran out Michael Fulmer, their best starter, though the M’s more or less mugged him on May 12th. It didn’t start out well as the King bequeathed the visitors three runs in fairly ugly fashion in the first inning. In a team effort, the M’s gifted Detroit a fourth run, unearned in the fifth inning.  Felix lasted through six, and if his performance wasn’t inspiring, it is the six inning three run performance we’ve come to expect.

Meanwhile the M’s offense flailed haplessly away at Fulmer’s stuff.  They managed only two hits and a hit batter heading into the 7th inning. But after Fulmer walked Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager to begin the inning, the M’s found a little spark.  A Ryon Healy groundout, followed by a Ben Gamel single scored two.  Walks to Mike Zunino and Guillermo Heredia loaded the bases in time for a Dee Gordon sacrifice fly. A Jean Segura single and a Mitch Haniger double later, and bingo M’s lead 5-4.

Whattaya waiting for?

To start the eighth manager Scott Servais wheeled out the much bunged up Juan Nicasio, who has looked anything but the set-up guy he was paid a great deal of money to be.  Though he didn’t strike any Tigers out, he did retire the side on a somewhat improved slider and a fastball that reached 96. He was followed by Edwin Diaz in the ninth and he promptly allowed a single to James McCann.  To keep it short, Diaz struck out the Mikie Mahtook (what a great baseball name) to end the game.

A Few Quick Observations

It’s hard to know if this was the most important game of the year.  Is that possible in May?  But the past few days, despite the comeback win on Tuesday, this team seemed adrift. Dee Gordon, in his interview with Jen Mueller post-game, suggested they were in the dumps. But believe it or not, your Seattle Mariners are in this thing, and they have to just win baby.

A corollary to just winning is just scoring. They were doing nothing against Fulmer and somehow ground things out until they could handle him in the seventh as well as the legion of bad relievers that followed him.  There is energy and excitement on this team I haven’t seen before, maybe ever. Toss out the quiet professional model, and let Guillermo Heredia run through the crowd like Rick Flair.  Let Edwin Diaz pump his arms on a punch-out. It’s good for baseball and it’s good for this team and this town.

The Felix Hernandez boo birds were out in force last night. His final line was:              6.0 IP; 6 H; 4 R; 3 ER; 3 BB; 4K  His cumulative stats aren’t pretty either with a 5.53 ERA, 5.35 FIP and 1.428 WHIP, the worst of his career.  He is not the $28 million dollar man the M’s thought they were getting when they signed him to his current contract. But here is what he is today.  He’s tied for the league lead in starts with 10.  Of those starts, the Mariners won seven. Felix has thrown 55.1 innings through mid-May.  Last year he threw a total of 86.2 innings. This is the Felix we have.  He’s taking the ball every fifth day and giving you about six innings. If three runs in six innings is the price of his start, it’s up to the offense to pay it.  If you were expecting him to be Justin Verlander or Chris Sale, I’m terribly sorry. Will he be better, probably not, but he’s not nothin’. Check out Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb or Yu Darvish if you need some consolation. You remember them.  They got the big free agent contracts heading in to spring training.  They suck.

The final codicil to scoring is holding on to a lead and the M’s did that last night. Whatever adjustments Nicasio made really worked.  His velocity was up and even though balls were hit hard, they were outs.  A great step going forward.  The M’s need an effective Juan Nicasio to hang on to their spot.

Tee it up again tonight boys.  Go M’s