Derek Jeter is safely retired now. The Yankee shortstop received a memorable send off from the Yankees and every other team in the league as he made his final rounds in 2014. I am a veteran Yankee hater. I despise them, I just do. But individual players from those great Bronx Bombers teams 1996-2000 are hard to dislike. Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, even Tino Martinez purloined from the 1995 Mariners are all pretty admirable. At the top of the list, however is Jeter. Jeter is unquestionably a Hall of Fame hitter. I buy the evidence that he lacked some of the physical talent of many great defensive shortstops. But one thing you’ll never sell me on is that he wasn’t a very good defensive player. Brendan Ryan may have had the range and the arm when the Fielding Bible compared the two in 2012, but nobody topped Derek Jeter in baseball smarts. He is the smartest ballplayer on the field I’ve ever seen and that always allowed him to get the most out of his considerable talents. Pinstripes or not, Derek Jeter was a classy player and a winner. He made everyone around him better and I will miss him.
MLBTradeRumors announced the Mariners designated Corey Hart for assignment. Hart, you remember him? He was signed by Jack Zdurencik to be the big right handed bat to hit behind Robinson Cano and bring balance and right-handed thump to the line up. Hart was to play right field, a little DH, and a little first base. You remember, right? My personal belief is that this was a whole lot of delusional thinking on Z’s part and I said so last winter. Hart never got hot, was injured a bunch, really couldn’t play the outfield, and most importantly, could never hit the American League. He was yet another bargain basement effort to bring a legitimate power bat into the lineup. Coming off microfracture surgery in both knees, having missed all of the 2013 season, Hart could never get it going. His slash line was .203/.217/.371 in 255 plate appearances. Corey Hart is the poster child for the things that are wrong with the Mariners. He had skills that didn’t fit with this team. He’s a guy who once upon a time was a good player, hit 30 homers, was right-handed. But his greatest virtue was that he was relatively cheap. For what Hart accomplished you could buy a lot of bats and balls for his $6 million, and they’d be just as useful. Hart was 6’6″ of walking talking wishful thinking. With this year’s success on the field, the Mariners cannot afford any more Corey Harts.
This weekend the Mariners came home to Seattle to face the California Angels, the team with the best record in baseball To sneak into the playoffs the M’s would have to win all three games, and the A’s would have to lose all three of their games to the Texas Rangers, the worst team in baseball.
The M’s did their part, sweeping the Halos in stirring fashion. It seemed like the A’s might cooperate too and force a one game playoff at Safeco Field on Monday, but no such luck. Sonny Gray pitched the game of his life to shut out the Rangers 4-0.
Yesterday, during the fifth inning at Safeco Field, the news flashed on the out of town scoreboard news of the A’s win in Arlington. The 40,000 + who packed the stadium in SoDo erupted into a cheer for the home team that lasted a solid 15 minutes. To play a meaningful game on the last day of a 162 game season is special indeed. Unfortunately there would be no ice cream at the end of the season for the 2014 Mariners.
In acknowledging their continued inability to fight their way into the playoffs, it is also important to recognize their achievements. I’ll break the season down in a future post, but here are some overall things to consider
- The Mariners improved by 16 games to 87-75. I predicted they would win 77 games. I was wrong and so were a whole lot of pre-season prognosticators.
- Seattle was second in Major League Baseball in team ERA, first in the American League. I know there are other meaningful stats, but that’s still pretty telling, and likely the entire mob of them will be back next year.
- Last year the Seattle Mariners were the worst defensive team in the American League by a wide margin. This year they finished in the middle according to UZR and other advanced defensive stats on FanGraphs. I know that’s not what Blowers and Sims would like you hear, but . . . Even so, this was a much improved defensive team that made its pitching staff better.
- The Mariners excited the fan base to the tune of an addition of 250K more attendees at Safeco Field, and edged over the two million mark, for the first time since 2010. Not close to the team’s high-water mark in 2002, but an improvement.
This team is set to become a winner. They’ve gotten a taste of what it’s like to win, to be so close you can taste it. There will be lots of post-season break downs. The “but they didn’t make it to the World Series” crowd will call for Lincoln and Zdurencik’s heads. Knowledgeable fans will demand more offense and wait, impatiently, for spring training. The players will look over the season and know if they had won two more games they’d be in the playoffs this week. There’s nothing good about losing, but this year, not winning will be like a burr under the saddle. The 2007 and 2009 teams were winners too, but they did it with smoke and mirrors and collapsed in the season that followed. This team is different. It’s the real deal, and is a team that just needs a couple more pieces. With very powerful bats. Preferably right handed. We’ll see.
Congratulations to Lloyd and his boys for an exciting season. I’m sorry it had to end.
The Mariners win today 7-5 over the Blue Jays. Yes, it’s good news. The M’s enter their final series of the season at 84-75. That’s 13 games better than last year, and we shouldn’t forget the 2014 season is a big step forward over last year.
Even so, it’s hard not to sigh heavily and wonder what the hell went wrong. Just to be clear, this team was doing quite well until it slipped on a banana peel entering the month of September. On Monday September 8th, the Mariners defeated Houston at Safeco 4-1 to reach 15 games over .500 at 79-64. It was the high water mark of the season. Since that day the Mariners have gone 5-11. After today the Mariners still need a win to equal their win total in 2009. They can’t reach the 88 wins of the 2007 team. It’s likely they’ll be eliminated by from the wild card race tomorrow unless they sweep the Angels in Seattle, while the Royals and Athletics do a collective double pratfall.
Most discouraging, the Mariners plunge from competition, respectability and national notice is the chief instrument of that decline, the pitching staff. Yes, the Mariners offense has again begin offensive in most of the losses since September 8th, but its the last few starts by Chris Young and Hisashi Iwakuma together by the last starts against the Blue Jays by James Paxton and Felix Hernandez that seem to put the exclamation point on the disappointing close to a promising season.
There are those who will exclaim “Same ol’ Mariners,” and redouble their pledges to refuse to return to Safeco until Howard Lincoln and Jack Zdurencik are both found floating in Puget Sound. It’s hard not to be disappointed about the end. But there are some good things that happened too.
Though the season ending stats may not show it do to this month’s meltdown, but the Mariners pitching staff-starters and relievers-had a stupendous year. Pressed into starting roles by early season injury, Chris Young and Roenis Elias were fabulous. The bullpen was simply unhittable for most of the season. Though I sat through the Fernando Rodney-walks-four-guys-to lose-in-ten innings-to-the-A’s game on September 13th, he brought stability to the bullpen allowing Tom Wilhelmson, Danny Farquhar, Justin Leone and late comer Brandon Maurer to thrive.
Offensively, there were lots of guys who had moments, flashes of goodness, but only Robinson Cano had a season of uninterrupted awesomeness. Though Kyle Seager was awfully damn good for 5/6ths of the season, he was pretty well missing these last 20 games. Dustin Ackley’s comeback was undone by a bad ankle. Logan Morrison showed us something in September. Michael Saunders showed us he was injury prone. If this team is to take the next step next year, it’s clear offensive upgrades have to happen. DH, first base, outfield are all areas that need upgrading.
The rest of the year . . . we’ll see, but I’m done holding my breath and hoping for the best. Mariners, you’re always in my heart, but you came darn close to breaking it this year.
Yesterday Hisashi Iwakuma went 2.1 innings, the shortest start in his career, gave up 5 earned runs, and somehow, the Seattle Mariners still managed to beat the Red Sox in Boston 8-6 for a first ever three game sweep at Fenway Park. This came on the heels of Chris Young’s 3.2 inning performance on Saturday, a 7-3 Mariner victory, and Felix Herndanez’s un-Felix-like 5.2 inning outing on Friday won by the Mariners 5-3 in a dramatic 9th inning comeback.
The sweep pushes the Mariners to 71-58 on the season. That’s right, on August 24th the Mariners equaled their win total for all of 2013. They also advanced to 13 games over .500 for the first time this season, holding on a to a slim one-game lead in the second wild card race over the Detroit Tigers.
They return home today to face a battered, broken Texas Rangers ballclub, decimated by injuries. With 50-79 record, the worst in baseball, the Rangers are exactly the kind of team the Mariners have trouble with. If you don’t remember this, look up the M’s games against the woeful Philadelphia Phillies last week.
The starters for the Texas series will be Roenis Elias on Monday, James Paxton on Tuesday, and King Felix on Wednesday. All need to pitch deep into games to give the Mariners bullpen, called upon for 15.1 innings of one run baseball during the Boston series, a bit of a break. The M’s have been about run prevention-superior pitching and defense-all season, and the middle of a pennant race isn’t a time to rest on their laurels. This team is scoring more, a lot more, than prior to the deadline deals of July 31st, but they will struggle when the September stretch run is inaugurated with Washington’s visit to Seattle Labor Day weekend.
The M’s need some home-cooking before the schedule makes life really hard for them in the final month of the season. They can still win, but they’ll have to play better than they did in Boston and Philadelphia.
In 2001 the greatest team in Mariners history blew out of the gate on April 2nd, beat the Oakland A’s 5-4 and never looked back. The previous year they’d won the division series against the White Sox and lost to the Yankees in the ALCS. They were supposed to be good, and they were on the road to the World Series until the divine intervention of 9/11 stepped in and tipped the American League Championship once again to the Yankees.
Though the 2001 team was brilliant, but not perfect, it is the 1995 team we all remember most fondly. Edgar and Junior, Buhner and Randy. Joey Cora crying tears of disappointment on the bench. Luis Sojo’s double down the line of the one game playoff against the Angels, leaving Mark Langston prone on the mound. They saved baseball in Seattle. Most importantly, they won when they weren’t supposed to. They were a bad team the previous year, at 49-63 when the strike took place and plunged baseball into darkness. When the Mariners defeated the California Angels on August 3, 1995 they were twelve games back of the Halos and they weren’t even a .500 team at 44-46. They sputtered and coughed through most of the month of August, going 10-8, until they played the Yankees on August 24th. Still behind the Angels 11.5 games they outlasted the Bombers 9-7 and began a run to the end of the season that saw them go 25-11. It coincided with the Angels’ epic collapse.
Today Lloyd McClendon will look at the standings and find his team 5.5 games back of the Oakland A’s and the Los Angeles Angels. The Mariners are on a 10-2 roll. The once invincible Athletics are having trouble pitching. The Angels offensive juggernaut isn’t hitting. The Mariners have 39 games left to play with six games against each of the division leaders. With every game taking on increased importance, remembering Al Davis’ words from another sport, “Just win baby,” is probably most relevant. This team wasn’t supposed to be this good, but they are. They can pitch, they can play defense, and god help us, they’re starting to hit like they mean it. There is a look to this team like last year’s Red Sox, in which all the pieces come together and the unthinkable is now doable.
It’s time for the cast of Mariners fans to come out from behind the woodshed, where you’ve been shivering, ignored and afraid since 2005. It’s time for the Bavasi-haters, the Chuck and Howie anti-fan club, and the 2001 “truthers” to swallow their quart of Pepto-Bismol and, like Lou Piniella, embrace this team and accept that they’re good. It’s time for those who celebrated the underdogs of 1995, who, like me, have gone gray in our quiet loyalty and drag out those Refuse to Lose, and Sodo Mojo banners, proudly don your M Heads, stop muttering “I hope they can,” and start shouting “I know they can.” The moment is ripe Mariners fans. In the words of the great philosopher king, Jay Buhner, “F**k the wild card, let’s win the division.”
When the Mariners finished 71-91 last year I was devastated. Those Mariners began their year looking like they should improve on 2012’s 75-87 season, but they were bad: a poorly assembled collection of guys playing out of position, a terrible bullpen, and offense challenged. It was a stop-gap team of aging veterans on one-year deals assembled to ease the development of the young players assembled by General Manager Jack Zdurencik. It failed miserably. The team was lousy, it was painful to watch and it was boring. I was tired of Zdurencik and manager Eric Wedge, I wanted them both gone. When it was revealed Zdurencik received a double super secret contract extension I was disgusted and ready to leave the Mariners reservation.
Today the team stands at 65-55, a half game behind the sputtering Detroit Tigers for the second wild card spot. They’ve vastly diminished the leads Oakland and Los Angeles hold in the division and first wild card races. They boast first-class pitching and an offense that is inconsistently effective, but for most of the past ten days or so has been effective enough. Raul Ibanez has been replaced by Robinson Cano. A Fernando Rodney led bullpen is the best in major league baseball. Felix Hernandez is clearly the best right-handed pitcher in the world.
If I’m going to blame Jack Zdurencik for the team’s failures, he also gets my acknowledgement for his success. Though his tenure includes some bone-headed decisions like the Fister trade and signing Corey Hart, he’s made a number of key decisions that led to this year’s success.
Felix Hernandez Extension–If Zdurencik and the corporate big boys hadn’t come to terms with Felix last year we’d be having a different conversation this summer: when and where will they trade Felix? Today we’re talking about the historic nature of his 2014 performance and how it measures up against Pedro, Clemens and Ron Guidry. I like this conversation better.
Lloyd McClendon Hiring–On ESPN 710 earlier this week there was this great conversation about whether McClendon or Zdurencik was more responsible for the team’s success. I’ve really enjoyed McClendon. He’s molded the team to fit his personality. He is transparent. He is honest. It seems clear that if a player is not up to the required task he’ll be somewhere else. Ask Justin Soak and Erasmo Ramirez. It seems obvious McClendon is a key component of this team’s success. I’m glad Zdurencik had the foresight to bring him to Seattle.
Robinson Cano signing–I was not among those who criticized the signing of the Yankee slugger for a Brinks truck full of dough, and I have not been disappointed. Though the power numbers are down, Cano has performed every bit as well as I would have hoped at bat, in the field and in the clubhouse. Yes, Cano is performing well, but it is clear he has a leadership role on this team that makes him incredibly important. Scott Weber’s excellent analysis of Cano’s performance so far over at Lookout Landing make’s this clear. I believe his value goes beyond the stats.
Fernando Rodney signing-Last year the Mariners bullpen was a wreck. The most blown leads of any ‘pen in the major leagues. No clear leader. They threw too many balls and gave up too many homers. When Zdurencik signed Fernando Rodney to a two year deal I was skeptical. The 13-year veteran had a brilliant year with the Rays in 2012, and a much less successful season with them in 2013. Despite Rodney’s tendency to dance on the high wire, he’s provided solid performance and leadership out of the bullpen. Regardless whether you like his cap tilt or his bow and arrow act, his 35 saves is tied for 2nd in the major leagues.
Trading for Austin Jackson-When the Mariners began the season with Abraham Almonte in centerfield I held my breath. In my view Almonte was too inexperienced at the major league to have the responsibilities of center and leadoff hitter on him. When they shipped his shrapnel riddled major league corpse down to Tacoma in May and replaced him with the equally inexperienced James Jones my heart stopped. Though Jones was refreshing for a few weeks, it became clear the team once again overreached for a player who wasn’t ready to be in the bigs. The M’s simply have few major league solutions for a shortage of outfield talent. When Jack Z. was able to trade for a quality veteran centerfielder like Austin Jackson, a playoff veteran from an annually contending team, and give up only Nick Franklin I developed a new appreciation for Zdurencik’s trading acumen.
Today, at this moment, this team is in an entirely different place than it was in 2013. One need only look at attendance figures to know fans also realize this. Last year the team drew 1,761,546. After 66 home dates the Mariners stand at 1,651, 826. With 15 home games remaining is it possible they could draw two million? The last time the M’s drew that many was 2010. They’d need to average a tick over 23,000 per game and their current per game average is just over 25K, a number that’s likely to tick up if the team remains in the playoff chase.
The Mariners are better, the club’s fortunes are improved. It doesn’t mean things are perfect. I still remember August 27, 2007 when the Angels came to town, with the M’s three games behind them in the division race. They were swept at home and lost 15 of 17 in a bitter collapse. This team is much better than that one.
Barring a monumental el foldo, Jack Zdurencik assembled some important pieces for this team going forward. It seems likely the Mariners won’t collapse; their pitching is simply too good for that. They may not make it to the playoffs, but I have every reason to believe they can. Regardless, Zdurencik put together a roster good enough, and intriguing enough for next year to earn a contract extension.
On August 27, 2007, the 73-55 Mariners came home after losing a tough series to the Rangers to face the Angels. The game had a playoff atmosphere as the M’s were fighting for a playoff spot, and nearly 46,000 fans packed Safeco Field as the M’s took their best shot to catch the Halos, trailing their division rival by three games. Miguel Batista gave up six runs in six innings, John Lackey shut down the Mariners bats on seven hits in his complete game victory and the massive crowd went home disappointed.
The Mariners were swept at home in front of huge crowds, and went on to lose 15 of 17 between August 25th and September 11th effectively putting themselves out of the playoff picture. However, they did finish 88-74, still their best record since the 93 wins of 2003.
I share this because as well as the Mariners seem to be playing right now, bad stuff can still happen. Detroit seems to have suffered seems to have suffered devastating injuries to their pitching staff at the same time Pittsburgh’s all-everything Andrew McCutcheon has gone on the disabled list. The M’s could once again forget how to hit, as they have many times this season. As the schedule gets tougher they may suffer total amnesia, but I hope not.
Bad stuff happened in 2007 and could happen again to this seemingly snake-bit franchise, but I believe this team is different. That team was led by Ichiro in one of his last seasons of unquestionable greatness. The team scored 794 runs, no Mariners team has scored 700 runs since, but had a miserable pitching staff after a 21 year old Felix Hernandez. A strong bullpen could not keep this team from having a run differential of -19.The 2007 team was also plagued by bad chemistry. Manager Mike Hargrove mysteriously resigned mid-season, and in a tell-all 2008 post trade interview, closer J.J. Putz revealed there was considerable clubhouse dissension with particular ire directed at Ichiro.
The 2014 is led by all-world pitching and has a run differential of +84. Felix Hernandez is in an unquestioned position to be the AL Cy Young Award winner and is supported by excellent rotation mates Hisashi Iwakuma and Chris Young. The Mariners bullpen is the deepest in baseball. Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Austin Jackson provide veteran offensive leadership to the team, while Dustin Ackley, Mike Zunino, and Chris Taylor continue to show signs of development. This teams seems to follow the examples set by Seager and Cano and seem to fit the mold desired by manager Lloyd McClendon. They believe they will win, and by all accounts, the Mariners are well-positioned for a playoff race.
Last night the Mariners mugged a bullpen depleted, sleep deprived Toronto Blue Jays team 11-1. This series, that ends Wednesday, was highly touted as a battle of wild-card rivals. Tied entering the game last night, the M’s need to beat the Jays before setting out on the road.. The three game weekend series against a battered, struggling Detroit team is taking on new significance as the Royals dropped the team from Motown into the second wild card spot, one game ahead of Seattle. Now is a good time for the Mariners to stay hot as the season sets for terminal velocity.
When my school colleagues gave me a big Mariners summer to help me recuperate from my cancer surgery I “had to” schedule some games and decide who to share them with. The first person who came to mind was Dave, my dearest friend. Dave and I go way back and have a lot of things in common, including a love of games and baseball. Another thing we have in common is summers off. Dave is retired from the Pierce County courts and I am a teacher doing little but relaxing. So I bought tickets to the Atlanta Braves game at Safeco for Wednesday afternoon.
I’ve always wanted to do the day game thing by catching the Sounder train up to King Street, spend the morning dorking around in Seattle, have an awesome lunch at Henry’s and walk over to Safeco Field to catch the game. Yesterday we did that.
David made his way to my house at about 6:30 AM. He hates driving in traffic and sure enough he was able to dodge most of it. We got everything ready to go, preparing the dogs for ten hours in their crates.
The first step to taking Sounder to the Mariners game from Puyallup is getting to the station. Parking is a pain and the Puyallup Fairgrounds provides space for commuters. I parked for free at the red lot and we connected with a Pierce Transit bus to the station. Note to self: The price of the bus is $2.50 not a buck as your pass-toting wife suggested. Dopey me. Buying a ticket for the train is easy cheesy. We each bought a day pass for $8.50. Given the cost of gas and parking, and the hassle of searching for said services, this is a great deal. We boarded the train at about 7:42 and arrived at King Street 30 minutes later.
After grabbing something to eat we stopped at an awesome toy store at First and Occidental before making our way to Ebbets Field Flannels. If you love all things baseball EFF is not to be missed. They make custom minor league and Negro League jerseys, jackets and caps. The variety of colors, patterns and different teams is staggering. Not for the faint of wallet, most items have to be special ordered. I bought a New York Knights cap based on the mythical team from the Robert Redford movie, “The Natural.” Goofy, yes, but I confess to always having wanted one. At least I stayed away from the jersey and the $395 jacket.
From there it was on to Henry’s for lunch. When we left home the skies were pretty overcast and the weather was comfortable but cool. When we left the restaurant and crossed Edgar Martinez Way it was bright sunshine and toasty warm. We entered the stadium and headed for our seats, one of the few in the ballpark bathed fully in bright sunshine. We were about to get cooked. David muttered something about Jeff Renner and mostly cloudy skies. Oh well, there are worse places to spend a hot summer day.
By the way, we watched a ballgame. An awesome ballgame; the home team won on the strength of a couple of home runs and some great relief pitching. The Mariners were playing the Atlanta Braves, a team that has led the National League East for much of the season, but suffered it’s eighth consecutive loss yesterday. They looked like a team that is playing poorly on this long West Coast road trip. There were missed communications that led to runs Wedenesday on top of Tuesday night’s clanked pop fly off Bobby La Stella’s glove that cost them two runs and that game and both games in the short series.
By contrast, the Mariners looked better. I’d seen two of the three games against the Mets, when the M’s had struggled just to get base runners, let alone score. In this game, the Mariners scored in the first inning when Dustin Ackley singled and Robinson Cano drove him home with a double. Starter Chris Young got in trouble in the third inning when he gave up three singles and a walk to tie the score at 1-1. The next batter, Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, drove a ball deep to left between new centerfielder Austin Jackson and left fielder Ackley. They seemed to struggle with the sun and the ball landed behind them for a ground rule double. but the bleeding ended there, 3-1 Braves.
The M’s took control in their half of the third when Ackley led off with a homer, 3-2 Braves. That seemed to be the extent of things, when Kyle Seager singled to left, and was followed by an infield hit by Chris Taylor. With runners at first and second and two outs, Logan Morrison, a general disappointment among many disappointments this year, poled a 1-2 pitch into the right field bleachers for a three run dinger. M’s lead 5-3.
From there it was all downhill. The Mariners tacked on two more. Young seemed to struggle in the heat a bit and only made it through five innings. The bullpen corps of Joe Beimel, Tom Wilhelmson, Dominic Leone and Yoervis Medina did a great job of keeping the scuffling Braves away from further scoring and bingo, win number 59 was in the books. The Mariners were only a game behind Toronto for the final Wild Card spot, and a half game behind Kansas City, with the White Sox blowing into town for four. The final big news of the day was that Chris Sale pitched and would miss the Seattle series. Whoopeee!!!
Dave and I let go of the Braves ninth inning and walked to the train and managed to board the Sounder moments before it pulled out of King Street Station. We agreed it was a super day. The train ride, the ball game, the weather (though we were both pretty sunburned,) was perfect. We agreed that next summer we’d try to see every Mariners weekday game by taking the train.
Notes on photos: All pictures were taken from our seats in left-center field using a Nikon Coolpix P510. Though this point and shoot “bridge” camera doesn’t allow control over the shutter speed, it’s zoom lens gave me considerable ability to get good pictures from across the stadium.
As the trade deadline approached, the Mariners find it more and more difficult to score runs, and the second wild card spot slips further and further from their grasp, I was afraid Jack Zdurencik would panic and do something foolish. I was happy to see he didn’t. Though the addition of two right handed hitting outfielders, Chris Denorfia from the San Diego Padres, and Austin Jackson from the Detroit Tigers are not likely to catapult the Mariners into the American League West race, they both answered some important needs for the M’s.
First, both players are are at least average defensively, and an upgrade over the Mariners current outfield defense. Austin Jackson is a World Series veteran, starting everyday center fielder. They haven’t had a quality centerfielder since 2010 when Franklin Guttierrez was still semi-healthy, and the organization hasn’t developed a talented center fielder since that Adam Jones guy they traded away. Jackson has historically been an average center fielder or slightly above. Denorfia is average at all three outfield positions. They will be an improvement over the inexperienced James Jones and the aging Endy Chavez..
Though neither player is bringing a lineup changing bat to the team, they are both right handed which evens out a team that is unbalanced toward lefties. Jackson’s slash is .272/.332/.399 with an OPS+ of 99. He replaces James Jones with .258/.287/.313 and an OPS+ of 72. Though Jackson brings little threat of home run sock, his 25 doubles would tie for the team lead with Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. Denorfia is having a down year at the plate and is hitting .242/.292./319. Though Denorfia has tended to mash lefties in years past, his splits for this year doesn’t show those kind of lefty killing numbers.
Most importantly, neither of these players cost the Mariners players who likely fit into the teams future plans. The M’s contribution to the three way deal that brought them Jackson was Nick Franklin. Though Franklin was a highly regarded prospect, the sheen on him was a bit tarnished. He struggled to hit at the major league level. His best defensive position was blocked by $240 million of Robinson Cano. The Mariners made clear their verdict on his value when they called up Chris Taylor to replace a faltering Brad Miller at shortstop. Ouftielder Abraham Almonte and reliever Stephen Kohlscheen were the cost for Denorfia. The Almonte experiment imploded in a mushroom cloud of strikeouts and misplays in April, and Kohlscheen is blocked from joining the M’s crowded, talented bullpen. Most notably are the players the Mariners did not give up-no Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, D.J. Peterson, no Brandon Maurer or Mike Zunino.
Just as interesting is who will lose playing time with the addition of these guys. One would guess Jones will head back to Tacoma to work on his game. Chavez may be gone too. Denorfia will likely form a platoon with Michael Saunders when he returns from the DL as long as Dustin Ackley continues his hot hitting. With Paxton likely to return from the DL this weekend, we may see the end of the Corey Hart experiment as well as other players, hitting marginally better than Hart rotate through the DH spot.
No, the Mariners did not add players who were transformational. The team will continue to be offensive light-weights, though improved by degrees. It is a big improvement defensively, and a very modest improvement offensively. Jackson is under contract through next year, Denorfia is just a rental. Those expecting the Mariners to be the offensive equal of the Angels or Tigers will be disappointed, but honestly those bats were never available. Look at the guys who were traded. The headline players were big arms–David Price, John Lester, Jeff Samardijia. Does this improve their playoff chances? Probably not. But it does make them better, and the Jackson trade fills a huge organizational hole at a minimal cost.
I’ve already written about the A’s stunning acquisition of Jeff Samardijia and Justin Hammel. The Angels have also bolstered their weakness, their bullpen. July 5th they acquired Joe Thatcher and Tony Campagna from the Diamondbacks, and last week they picked up Huston Street from the Padres. Both the teams in front of the M’s in their division improved themselves in significant ways.
Today the news came across MLB Trade Rumors the Yankees acquired Chase Headley from the Padres. With .229/.296/.355 slash, Headley is not exactly the second coming of Mike Schmidt, but he is playing superb defense and will fill a hole for the Yankees in the field.
It’s important to be realistic as teams approach the trade deadline. The M’s are 8 1/2 games back of the division leading A’s and 6 1/2 back of the Angels. Both teams are playing very well right now and the Mariners are unlikely to catch them. There is no deal currently nn the marketplace, or likely to be available that will make Seattle so much better they will be transformed into the kind of offensive club necessary to make up that kind of ground. The Rockies aren’t trading Troy Tulowitzki, the Marlins aren’t letting go of Giancarlo Stanton, the Pirates aren’t parting with Andrew McCutcheon, and it would likely take all three to win the division.
But the Yankees move is disturbing because the Mariners hold in the second wild card slot, and the Yankees are only 2 1/2 games behind them. Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota are all within 7 1/2 games. It is likely that many of these same clubs will make deals to improve their position in the wild card race. The M’s may lead this race today, but it is hardly a sure thing.
The question for the Mariners and Jack Zdurencik is what to do? Act now, trade prospects, improve the team for a one game playoff riding on Felix Hernandez’s right arm, or play the hand you have and hope for the best. It seems unlikely the M’s can win the wild card if they stand pat. They’ve done really well at run prevention, but if we learned anything from the Angels series, it’s that we must score more, even if it’s only a little bit more. Let’s take a look at some numbers.
DH Corey Hart .213/.291/.337, OPS+ 80, -5 WAR. Yes, I know David Ortiz is not available. But certainly a bat is available who will have more success in this role than these numbers suggest. DH should provide an offensive boost, not a hitting black hole. Remember when people complained about Jose Vidro at DH? Cadillac by comparison.
The Outfield. Dustin Ackley is thriving-at the moment. But we’ve seen these moments before. I like James Jones, but he is till learning at the major league level. Though he has scored 38 runs, third most on the team behind Cano and Seager, he has only 12 extra base hits and no home runs. Endy Chavez is a guy like Doug Strange and Stan Javier who played sparingly and made great Mariners teams better. Michael Saunders is the best of the lot at this point and he is injured. The Mariners outfield has hit a total of 14 home runs, or the same number second year player Mike Zunino has hit. They don’t get on base enough, or have enough speed to make up for the lack of power. The Mariners need an upgrade in the outfield.
SS Brad Miller. Miller is hitting .204/.272/.323. I know Miller struggled out of the gate and picked himself up in June, but he’s back in a funk again. Surely there is an upgrade out there somewhere–maybe even within the organization.
1B. Lots of guys have had a shot at this: Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison, Corey Hart, even Willie Bloomquist. Nobody is prospering. Smoak was sent back to Tacoma last night in a roster move. Despite some initial success after his recall from the DL, Morrison has struggled. Bloomquist doesn’t belong at first. First base is an offensive intensive position, and instead production here is just offensive.
Starting pitching. The M’s have gotten by managing Felix, Iwakuma, Chris Young, and Roenis Elias, and for the most part they’ve responded unbelievably well. But Elias will run out of innings soon and Young hasn’t thrown this well this long in years. The fifth spot is another gigantic question mark. Hopefully James Paxton will return soon. It’s clear Lloyd McClendon isn’t enamored of 21-year old Taijuan Walker at this moment, and thinks even less of Erasmo Ramirez. The help wanted sign is out.
It’s clear the Mariners are fishing in a very shallow pool of talent for mid-year reinforcements, a pool that’s also being fished by many competitors. The question is, who do you let go of in exchange for upgrades. If I were the M’s there are some guys that are untouchable-Zunino, power hitting right hander D.J. Peterson, and James Paxton. Walker could be had for the right deal, though it’s clear we haven’t seen the best of him. . The M’s do have some pieces, mostly prospects, to make a clear upgrade, and let’s face it there are positions that are easily improved. They shouldn’t be afraid to deal, as long as they aren’t mortgaging their future with little return in time and talent. In other words, don’t be trading Walker for a guy who walks at the end of the year.
I don’t expect a blockbuster makeover, but there are some of those mid-level guys that are or will become available in the coming days who can strengthen this team. As we head into August and the importance of every win and every loss is magnified, what is or isn’t done at that trade deadline will take on added scrutiny.