Take it easy fellah, it’s just a rumor

Say this for Jerry DiPoto.  He certainly knows how to keep you on your toes. After a big trade with Tampa, another with San Diego, a third with Texas and a key free-agent signing Monday, all in the month of November, the man stays busy.  Don’t close your eyes, you might miss something important.

So when I was looking at MLB Trade Rumors for like the 50th time yesterday, and at 6:55 PST it was announced the M’s and Marlins were considering a trade of a pitcher-maybe James Paxton-for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, sleepy me woke right up.  Ozuna had a great 2014 year, was injured, had 1-36 stretch and was sent to get fixed in the minor leagues which he called “jail” and landed in owner Jeffrey Loria’s doghouse.

Subsequent updates made the status of these rumors, followed closely by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, shall we say quite muddy. At one point it sounded like a deal could involve multiple players and the Mariners wouldn’t include Taijuan Walker in a deal. The lack of updates today doesn’t mean a potential deal is off, but it sounds like there is lots of talking to do–including the Marlins listening to offers from other teams. It does sound like Ozuna is likely trade bait for some young cost-controlled pitching.

Upon hearing all this I went back and forth between MLBTR and the Seattle Mariners Facebook page, a fan page just to gauge fan interest.  The range of reaction was amazing.  Some clearly wanted to wait and see who the Mariners were offering, while others immediately upped the ante to include Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton in the deal-always for Roenis Elias, Jesus Montero and members of the coaching staff.

I’m not suggesting this trade isn’t happening, or couldn’t happen, that it could involve Ozuna or more than Ozuna. But it is just another conversation about players that every team will have throughout the Hot Stove League and in to Spring Training.  It’s what teams have always done.  It’s just that so many more people are listening and writing about it that we jump out of our skin whenever we hear something about the Home Towne Team.  Remember, rumors are just lies by another name.

But there is some real news to share:

Danny Hultzen cleared waivers and will rejoin the Rainiers in Tacoma, according to Greg Johns.

Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs has a pretty interesting breakdown of what James Paxton can do to improve the effectiveness of his fastball.

USS Mariner’s take on Chris Iannetta’s signing and why it’s such a good deal for the Mariners.

Finally, Nathan Bishop‘s article at Lookout Landing on the considerations the M’s are likely taking about whether to acquire a right fielder and what to do with Nelson Cruz is interesting and thoughtful–and a lot like my own. And they’re probably driving a lot of this activity around Marcell Ozuna, dammit!

 

 

24-30: Jack Z Senses Emergency, Breaks Glass

The Mariners lost 2-1 yesterday to the Tampa Bay Rays.  They were swept by the Yankees, and have gone 1-7 on the current home stand.  After clawing their way to .500 on last week’s lengthy road trip through the Eastern division, they’ve now lost six straight and find themselves mired in fourth place, nine and half games behind the division-leading Astros.

It’s June 5th, and it seems like old times again.  Remember all those predictions about how great things were gonna be this year.  Well, forget about it. Remember my fears about the lack of pitching depth? The M’s are experiencing it right now.  All the efforts made by the front office to make the offense better, it’s not working and the Mariners continue to struggle to score.  They are last in batting average, last in on-base percentage and 14th out of 15 teams in runs scored.

Wednesday night the Mariners announced a trade with the Diamondbacks.  They sent reliever Dominic Leone, catcher Wellington Castillo, AA outfielder Gabby Guerrero, and infielder Jack Reinheimer. In return they received outfielder/first baseman/designated hitter Mark Trumbo and lefty pitcher Vidal Nuno.

Is this a game changer? Um, probably not. Trumbo is the kind of righty power hitter Jack Zdurencik has always loved.  Below .300 OBP, he’ll hit some home runs and strike out a lot. He’s a younger, less injured version of Mike Morse–not much of a defender, but they needed a bat so Jack Z fixed on him. Nuno might be more important, given how short the Mariners are for starting pitching. Nuno, 27, struggled as a starter for the Yankees for three years before coming over to the Diamondbacks.  His performance improved with the Snakes, but he has only had three games with them this year.  He may be someone who can eat some innings for the Mariners, but he will start in the bullpen in long relief.

How important is this deal?  Trumbo may hit some home runs, but it doesn’t change the fact the M’s simply don’t hit with runners in scoring position.  they are fourth in the AL in home runs, but 14th in runs scored. They are second in the league in strikeouts. In their last 15 games the Mariners have scored four or more runs just four times.  Three of those games were just four runs, and the other game was the Fernando Rodney meltdown against Tampa Bay won in extra innings 7-6. It’s clear the M’s need offensive help.

It’s also easy to just brush this off as a panic move.  The fact of the matter is that not much is going right for the M’s.  They didn’t give up much to get Trumbo and Nuno.  It may help, but isn’t going to be transformative.  No, transformation will come when Robinson Cano begins to approach his career norms. The M’s will win more games if Dustin Ackley, Brad Miller and Mike Zunino begin to hit consistently.  That’s what the M’s planned for. The team will win more games when Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton return from the DL and if the bullpen, especially Mr. Rodney, go out and consistently become the run-stopping crew of 2014.

Finally, this should be a referendum on the types of teams Jack Zdurencik has assembled. Originally building his teams on run prevention-good pitching and defense-Jack has left the good defense part for the false promise of the home run ball.  He’s brought in a procession of players the past few years that have mashed, but mash no more-Corey Hart, Jack Cust, Mike Morse-as well as a few that only mash, notably Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo.  Set aside the signing of Cano and the development of Kyle Seager, and this is the team that he constructed through draft, trade and free agent signing.  Time is running out on the Jack Z Experience.  Fans expected more for this season and they’re entitled to demand blood if the good ship Mariner is wrecked on the rocks by July 1.

Are the Mariners done dealing?

It’s been pretty quiet in Marinerland since they netted Justin Ruggiano from the Cubs.  Are the Mariners done dealing?  Should they be done?

If the M’s were to leave for Peoria today, the likely big league roster favorites would probably look something like this:

SP candidates: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, J.A. Happ, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Roenis Elias, Erasmo Ramirez (out of minor league options)

RP candidates: Fernando Rodney, Tom Wilhelmson, Charlie Furbush, Yoervis Medina, Danny Farquar, Dominic Leone, Carson Smith, Brandon Maurer, David Rollins (Rule V draftee)

Catcher: Mike Zunino, Jesus Sucre

1B: Logan Morrison

2B: Robinson Cano

3B: Kyle Seager

SS: Chris Taylor, Brad Miller

OF: Dustin Ackley, Austin Jackson, Justin Ruggiano, James Jones, Brad Miller, Stefan Romero

DH: Nelson Cruz

Utility dude: Willie Bloomquist, Brad Miller.

These are fairly obvious choices for the major league roster, but there are some potential surprises as well.  They could include inf/of Partrick Kivlehan, or 1b/3b D.J. Peterson. I’m not suggesting this list is exhaustive, or that these are guys who will make the team, but it’s likely they are the ones who get first looks.

The Outfield

It’s clear this is the thinnest position on the team.  Austin Jackson is coming off a sub-par year.  We still don’t have a year of solid production from Dustin Ackley, despite his defensive improvements. It’s looking increasingly like a Justin Ruggiano/Brad Miller platoon in right, though it’s possible the front office is still trying to cook up a left handed platoon-mate for Ruggiano. I’m not a gigantic fan of the Brad Miller option.  Let’s be clear, despite Andy Van Slyke’s assurances Miller is a natural in the outfield, he hasn’t played there. Yes, I know he’s an athlete and he’s left handed, but there will be adjustments to playing the field.  In addition to that, Miller is coming off a less-than scintillating year at the plate.  As the left handed partner, he’d also be getting the majority of the at-bats.   I hope to see him get some time in the outfield, but just giving Miller 60 % of the right field at bats is a return to wishful thinking.

First Base

Logan Morrison finished the year as the Mariner first baseman, where he absolutely belongs. He finished the year strong, hitting over .300 in August and September.  I was all prepared to write about his need for a right-handed platoon mate, but his splits show a dramatic edge hitting left handed pitching over right-handed pitching. His slash against lefties is .333/.368/.478 but only .236/.296/.398, though 9 of his 11 home runs came against right-handers. It is conceivable the Mariners could be looking for a partner or upgrade at first, but Morrison could have a much better, healthier year than 2014.

The Bench

I’ve already written about the habitual lack of depth on the Mariners bench, one unlikely to deepen much because of Manager Lloyd McClendon’s predilection for a massive bullpen. With last year’s success, it’s unlikely McClendon will change strategy.  However, if it’s Ruggiano/Miller in the outfield, Bloomquist as super-sub, and Sucre backing up at catcher, that leaves one more spot.  The M’s could choose to carry outfielder James Jones as an extra player and late inning base-runner, or they might look for another useful bat as a role player.  Maybe they’d choose to carry Stefan Romero, or perhaps they could look for more of a pinch-hitting specialist. The bench is another spot to make the team better without a lot of cost.

Pitching Depth

Though the Mariners did struggle with pitching injuries last year, they managed to avoid the Tommy John plague that decimated so many staffs.  They got lucky with Chris Young and Roenis Elias, and Erasmo Ramirez, though not a charter member of the Lloyd MClendon Fan Club, was able to chip in 14 starts and 75 innings. This year there will be six guys vying for five starting spots.  Unless Raimirez begins the year on the big-league roster, he’ll be lost-he’s out of minor league options, and somebody will find a use for him. Last year the team started the season without Iwakuma and Walker, and Paxton joined the wounded list after a few starts.  Should the Mariners  seek additional depth off the scrap pile just in case? I’m not suggesting Max Scherzer or even Chris Young type depth, but maybe one of those scrap pile dudes who are trying to resurrect their career that always seem to be around for $1.95 and another shot at glory. There are not reinforcements left to call up from the minors.

Bullets

The Mariners have managed to give themselves a real D.H. add a pitcher and a little right-handed depth while sacrificing only Michael Saunders.  We’ll see how this works out after the season is over; I’m inclined to think the Saunders trade was more about chemistry than performance. It is hard to argue the team is not improved. Most importantly, the M’s hung on to all of their young players.  Matt Brazis, sent to Chicago for Ruggiano, wasn’t going to make this team. But the M’s still improved themselves while hanging on to Walker, Paxton, Miller, Taylor, Ketel Marte, Patrick Kivlehan, and D.J. Peterson as well as the best bullpen in baseball. It doesn’t mean they aren’t bullets that can’t be fired at a mid-season upgrade if they find a Miller/Ruggiano tag-team doesn’t work, or if they want to make some other improvement. Or if some of these guys show growth in Tacoma, maybe they are mid-season call-ups.

The M’s may make additional moves-or they might not. But, if they don’t, the Mariners should have the pieces in place–barring major injuries–to see if the plan works.

 

 

Mariners add Justin Ruggiano to outfield mix

The Mariners missed out on Melky Cabrera and Alex Rios, but may have struck some gold in their trade to the Cubs for outfielder Justin Ruggiano. The M’s surrendered 25 year old right-hander, Matt Brazis, and coughed up Logan Bawcom’s spot on the 40 man roster to make room for their new acquisition.

Ruggiano, 32, is capable of playing all the outfield spots. He’s a right handed hitter with a 281/.337/.429 slash, but against left handed pitchers he was .305/.333/.512 in 2014. Defensive metrics don’t love him, but they are inconsistent from year to year,so it’s difficult to tell how strong he’ll be in the field.

To get Ruggiano the M’s surrendered 25-year old right-hander Matt Brazis, the team’s Reliever of the Year, though he has not pitched above high-A level.  Ruggiano also swallowed Logan Bawcom’s spot on the 40 man roster.  Bawcom came over from the Dodgers in the Brandon League trade, and struggled in Tacoma last year.

Ruggiano is going to be 33 and struggled with his health last year.  In baseball parlance, Ruggiano is in decline. Is he the full time outfielder the M’s would have liked to have?  Probably not.  He’ll likely compete for the right field job, but all indications are that he’ll play primarily against left-handers.

Suggestions are the Mariners may be looking for a left-handed platoon partner.  The Padres’ Seth Smith may be available with their acquisitions of Matt Kemp and Wil Myers.  But there are complications if the Mariners decide to create a platoon.

Last year the bullpen was a major success story for the Mariners. The M’s used eight relievers in their bullpen for most of the year, adding Carson Smith to the corps when rosters expanded in September. Carrying a 13-man pitching staff creates some problems when discussing platoons. These are the positions likely taken when Spring Training opens

Catcher  Mike Zunino                   Jesus Sucre (or some reasonable facsimile)

1B            Logan Morrison

2B           Robinson Cano

3B           Kyle Seager

SS           Chris Taylor or Brad Miller

LF           Dustin Ackley

CF           Austin Jackson

RF           Justin Ruggiano and/or somebody else

Assuming  these are your everyday players, with a spot for a reserve catcher, you’re up to 22 players.  Utility guy Willie Bloomquist has one more year under contract. If they carry Taylor or Miller, whoever doesn’t get the starting nod, that’s 24. They have a spot for one more player, unless Lloyd decides to cut the bullpen down by an arm. That doesn’t seem likely. It means no spot for a platoon partner for Logan Morrison, or a pinch-hitter off the bench.

The M’s could still add Justin Upton or another player to be an everyday guy, with Ruggiano slotted in as a fourth outfielder.  Or they could look at acquiring somebody like Seth Smith as a  platoon partner.

If the M’s aren’t interested or able to acquire the player they want for the price they are willing to pay, they could look internally.  Some ink was spilled on the conversion of Miller to a utility guy. According to Lloyd McClendon on Shannon Drayer’s blog, Outfield coach Andy Van Slyke worked him out in the outfield and referred to him as a “natural.” James Jones is another potential partner, though it seems to me he could use more seasoning. If the Mariners do nothing, it doesn’t prohibit them from making a move later in the year.

The Ruggiano move was a low cost addition to the team that wants to be more effective against left-handed pitching. It lessens the likelihood we see much of Nelson Cruz in the outfield (one of my huge fears.) But, it’s not the end of the outfield conversation, but he is definitely a useful piece.

Matt Kemp Update

MLBTradeRumors shared a tweet by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale stating the Padres are mulling over Kemp’s physical results indicating arthritis in both hips.  Good call Mariners to avoid the train wreck that will be Kemp’s future career. Can’t wait NOT to have him roaming the outfield at Safeco Field.

Farewell Michael Saunders

News today the M’s traded outfield Michael Saunders to Toronto for pitcher J.A. Happ. Happ is a left handed starter.  Nothing special, back of the rotation material

On its face, this seems like a bad trade.  To begin with, this completely unsettles the Mariners outfield.   Saunders is a  plus defender in left and right, and could fill in as a center fielder.  Saunders finished the year with a respectable .273/.341/.450 slash and an OPS+ of 128.  He’s widely viewed as a toolsy player, with some power and speed and a good throwing arm.

Of course, the knock on Saunders is he can’t stay on the field.  78 games in 2014 followed 132 games in 2013, when he was rendered ineffective by a shoulder injury.  The season ended with bad blood between GM Jack Zdurencik and Saunders’ agent over whether the outfielder was doing enough in the offseason to stay on the field. It seemed a trade was writ months ago.

Moving past the poor employee relations, and that Saunders was likely to be traded, was this a good deal? Happ is an interesting addition to the team.  But it seems unlikely that he has a shot at breaking into a rotation featuring Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, and Roenis Elias.  At age 32 if Happ hasn’t become more than he is, he’s unlikely to be much more than last year’s 93 ERA+. It seems like a lot to give for what they got in return.

More likely, this is a precursor of another move.  The M’s need an outfielder, and they’ll be dealing for one.  The only available free agent is Melky Cabrera and perhaps they’re considering hiring  the Melk Man. Or perhaps the outfield move includes a trade that involves Taijuan Walker and they’ll need that extra arm. Make no mistake, the team was going to have to acquire some pitching depth in any case, but this does seem an odd way to get it, when there are so many second and third tier arms available on the market.

I liked Michael Saunders.  He was the Mariners best outfielder.  His crime seemed to be that he was injured in the line of duty and that he was left handed.  If he was traded for Happ as a prelude to trading away Mariners pitching, this doesn’t really inspire me.  Happ is not as good as Walker or Roenis. If Happ is merely pitching depth then hopefully Zdurencik has a hard time looking himself in the mirror.

Lots of interesting views of this trade:

Logan Davis at Lookout Landing offers this perspective.

The incomparable Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs offers a different view.

Mariners cruise into season’s second half

The M’s shocked me by blazing into the second half of the season eight games over .500.  I truly didn’t think they’d be here.  I’ve pointed out why I think they are there-improved starting and relief pitching and better defense.  But there are a few more things that have worked in their favor

1.  Schedule

The first two months of the season, the M’s suffered through a scheduling nightmare. Through May 21st they played a ridiculous number of road games, with lots of silly travel back and forth across the country.  They also played tons of games against division rivals.  By May 29th they’d played 18 games against the Athletics and Angels, both ahead of them in the AL West standings, and at this point, the two best teams in the A.L, well, okay, throw the Tigers in there too.  Since May 22nd the schedule has tipped in their favor.  There are more home games.  The road trips are shorter.  The strength of schedule is more advantageous, with games against the Red Sox, Cleveland, the Yankees, the Astros, and the White Sox.  Careful, things won’t stay that cozy, with series against the Athletics and Angels sandwiched around the All-Star Break.  Even so, July and August look like winnable months and the M’s will need some credits in the bank as they roll into a hellacious September. 

2. The Robbie and Kyle show

When the M’s signed Robinson Cano to a $240 million deal I was thrilled. They’d have a legit middle-of-the-order bat who could lead this team.  No retread recapturing the past. No prospect who might someday be good.  Cano’s signing was the real deal, a sign the fans were waiting for.  Of course, in their infinite penny-pinching ways, the Mariners management surrounded Cano with retreads (Corey Hart,) and prospects (Justin Smoak, and I use the term prospect loosely,) and said have at it. What has Cano done?  Let’s just say the words–he hasn’t hit for a lot of power, only six home runs and 17 doubles to date. Yet, he leads the team with 98 hits, runs scored with 43, and OBP with .378.  He is slightly behind Kyle Seager with an .818 OPS. That brings us to the second part of our story and that is Seager.  Seager is imperfect.  He has massive home/road splits. For example, of his 34 extra base hits, 19 of them are at home, including 11 of his 12 home runs. Yet somehow, when the M’s are at home, Seager finds a way to be the man.  When the M’s can’t score at Safeco, he is the one who gets it done. When the Mariners are offensively constipated, more often than not, Kyle is the Ex-Lax. May he continue to loosen their bowels on the current road trip.

3. Mike Zunino

It has been so long since the Mariners had a catcher worthy of the title, it is a pleasure to watch Mike Zunino behind the plate night in and night out. He does almost all those catcher things well.  He blocks balls in the dirt.  He calls a great game.  He is very good at framing pitches. According to Baseballreference.com, his defense rates in the top five of all major league catchers. That Zunino is also tied with Seager for the team lead in home runs is also nice.  At age 23, with little service in the high minor leagues, Zunino missed out on those developmental games that would have made him a better hitter.  Hence, he hits only .225, rarely walks, and has whiffed an amazing 86 times in 259 plate appearances.  Still there is something incredible to watch as he works with Felix on the mound, finding a way to get those changeups called strikes at the bottom of the strike zone.  That he often, in the same game, hits balls with majestic parabolas into the left field seats, the likes of which we haven’t seen since Richie Sexson, makes forgetting his offensive shortcomings easier.

4. James Jones

Jones is still young and still learning, but today he sits atop the second spot in the line up with a .295 average.  He leads the team with 17 steals and always seems a threat to run or score from wherever he is on base.  Yesterday’s triple was his fourth in only 212 plate appearances, and he seemed to jog for the the three-bagger.  The Mariners haven’t had a player like him since 2001 when Ichiro Suzuki signed with the team.  Though not as defensively polished as Ichiro, he should improve as a hitter and an outfielder.  His game would definitely improve with a higher walk rate.

LOOKING AHEAD

A. Trade or no trade

I think the M’s will need some help to get into the playoffs as a wild card.  There is next to no possibility they catch the A’s; they’re just too well constructed. However, I see little reason to trade for pitching.  Taijuan Walker took Erasmo Ramirez’s place.  While his first start was not a thing of beauty, it did all work out.  It’s said Roenis Elias will have his innings capped at 170; he currently has 104.2.  It’s likely James Paxton will return before Elias reaches his limit.  I know the M’s have been linked to David Price and Jeff Samardzia, but the cost to obtain someone of that quality will likely be considerably more than they can afford to pay. We’ve seen what Paxton can do.  It’s likely Walker will be better in the five spot than Maurer or Ramirez.  I’d let it ride.

But would I trade Walker for a bat?  Yes I would, as long as we’re talking a consistent performer with a proven track record, AND will be around for a few years. No Doug Fister or Cliff Lee deals.  The Mariners have offensive needs in the outfield, first base and/or DH.  I do believe Michael Saunders will give a M’s a bit of a bump, but not enough of one to carry the team. I don’t have faith Dustin Ackley will magically become what he is not. I think it is highly unlikely Corey Hart or Justin Smoak will come back to the M’s and provide a significant offensive boost. There are guys out there: Alex Rios of the Rangers, Seth Smith of the Padres and others that would improve the M’s where further production is needed.  There is no way Endy Chavez should be DHing, and Ackley needs another trip to Tacoma to find his missing swing. But don’t overpay.  Rios and Smith are both rentals, so deal accordingly.

B. Just win baby

I confess to being a scoreboard watcher, even in June.  It’s been a very long time since watching the Mariners standings was very interesting or relevant, so this is a pleasant surprise.  That said, there are still plenty of games to play, and teams that are close in the Wild Card standings.  Though the M’s are hot, they’ve still managed to lose a half game to the equally incendiary Angels.  The M’s are a game and a half ahead of the Orioles, and while other teams, like the Yankees and Royals have faded a bit, the Birds continue to win and remain on their heels.  The only solution to that problem is to keep winning.  After the final game against the Astros today, the M’s fly to Chicago for a weekend series against the White Sox.  They are a bad team, and Seattle has to find a way to overcome their past run of poor performances in the South Side if they want the fun to continue.  The Mariners have their destiny in their own hands, and while they can’t win them all, they must avoid lengthy losing streaks.

C. The offensive surge

The last couple of weeks witnessed burgeoning offensive performances by the M’s.  June 23rd, the Mariners beat the visiting Red Sox 12-3.  Since then the M’s have won some tight games and lost some tight games. In the games from June 23rd to the last night’s destruction of Houston, the Mariners hits totals were 14, 10, 8, 11, 1, 10, 11, 18.  The two games against the Astros were laughers.  The team batting numbers in every category of importance-runs scored, hits, slugging percentage, home runs-continue to rise.  The Mariners remain last int he league in the critical on-base percentage, but as batting averages have increased, so has OBP.  Team batting is now at .245, up from .232.  Even OBP, once stagnant in the .290’s is at .303.  The M’s need to take more walks and strikeout less, but as Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and role players like Endy Chavez continue to improve, the team numbers will get better too.  The help wanted sign should still be out there, but this team no longer has the smell of desperation around it.  We should remember the M’s are clubbing some pretty terrible pitching staffs right now, but in the past, that knowledge didn’t seem to help much.  Always kick a bad team when they’re down, and McClendon and batting coach Howard Johnson seem to have the boys in blue doing just that.

 

The Chips on the Table

With yesterday’s signing of Masahiro Tanaka by the New York Yankees, the constipation affecting player movement and roster construction for the past six weeks is likely to end.  Expect a flurry of moves as the calendar speeds toward Spring Training.

The Mariners have unfinished business.  They’ve done little to finalize their pitching staff.  There is still a glaring hole in the starting rotation.   Likewise, the Mariners bullpen, among the worst in the major leagues last year, looks sadly recognizable.    While there are still plenty of high priced closers available, perhaps the M’s would be served best by picking up a few talented, but cheaper pieces and creating the situational closer-by-committee.

But the real focus of this post is not what the M’s don’t have, but what they do have.  That the M’s coughed up $240 million for Robinson Cano is truly remarkable for this organization.  One can debate the wisdom of this contract down the road, but for 2014, it does give them a valuable piece to build around.

However, the signing displaces one of the team’s most valuable young players, Nick Franklin. Franklin, a minor league shortstop converted to second base, showed promise after his June call-up, but struggled at the plate in August and September. His 2013 slash line was .225/.303/.382 in 412 plate appearances. These numbers, accompanied by a 27.4% strikeout rate aren’t very good.  However, Franklin was a fine minor league hitter who initially struggled at each developmental level, made adjustments and tore up his league before moving on to the next challenge.  There is no reason to suppose he won’t do the same at the major league level.

The question is what to do with him? He’s blocked at second, and youngster Brad Miller seems to have grabbed the shortstop position.  Miller had more success as a defender and at that plate in 2013 than Franklin.  The Mariners, committed to two years of Willie Bloomquist as a utility player are reduced to three options on Franklin: A) send him to Tacoma, available as depth in case of injury or if Miller should fail , B) send him to Tacoma and give him instruction in playing the outfield or another position that is less set, or C) trade him.

A and B are highly unlikely.  Franklin has nothing left to prove at AAA, and it would seem like a demotion, rather than a regrouping. Franklin to the outfield? The experiment of moving Dustin Ackley to the outfield, while an unfinished work, has not been a big success. Ackley is not much of a hitter, even with his late season surge, and his outfield defense is below average.  While Ackley certainly seems tradeable, it’s just as likely the M’s will keep him in the outfield mix. With Michael Saunders, Corey Hart, Logan Morrison, Franklin Gutierrez and Abraham Almonte all chasing outfield time with Ackley, a conversion move seems unlikely.

Nope, Franklin is a trade chip.  He’s a very good trade chip, but still not worth a lot to this franchise on the field. Oliver projects Franklin at between 3.1-3.6 WAR over the next five years, so he’s not someone who should be traded for a LOOGY, a pepperoni pizza and a bag of balls. He would also be under team control for those five years, which should make him very attractive. The M’s should be filling a genuine need in moving him.

Another player displaced by free agency is Brett Gardner.  The Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury, an elite centerfielder, to a seven year deal displacing Gardner from his spot. Last year they acquired Alfonso Soriano in a trade, and in November signed Carlos Beltran to a three year deal.  With Ichiro Suzuki still on the roster, the Yankees’ outfield seems quite full.  On the other hand, having lost the best second baseman in the game in Cano, they have a hole filled at least temporarily by the aged and infirm Brian Roberts, with nobody else on the horizon.

Gardner is a fine player.  He is 30, and an elite level defender. His defensive numbers compare roughly equivalent to Ellsbury. Gardner is rated in Oliver at 3.5 WAR for 2014 and down to 2.5 in 2018. He recently signed a very affordable one year $5.6 million extension with the Yankees for 2014.

The M’s need a centerfielder.  A good centerfielder. A player who can cover a lot of ground, make plays in and out of zone who will make the pitching staff better.  There is little question Gardner would improve the Mariners.  The Yankees need a second baseman. You’d think there would be a way for the two teams to waltz across the floor and dance.  But it’s never that easy.  The economics of the deal-Yankees get a player with great potential, who has proved little at the major league level, cost controlled for five years, and the M’s would get a potential one-year deal on a very good player who may walk at the end of the season. Probably not going to happen.

If the Mariners could make a sign and trade work out, this could be to both teams’ benefit.  Even if this is not a deal the M’s can make, Gardner is the kind of player the M’s should be looking to get for Franklin, Ackley or any other young player they think about moving.  Athletic, good defender, decent OBP, with some speed. They don’t need to further complicate their outfield, DH picture further with another player like Hart or Morrison, i.e., Nelson Cruz, guys really not suited to play the outfield, but someone they’ll trot out their anyway because they’re enamored of the longball.